Signing Nick Foles Long-Term Might be the Right Option

The St. Louis Rams only traded for former Eagles quarterback Nick Foles a few months ago, but now the word on the street is that St. Louis could be looking to lock him up for a long-term deal, as Ian Rapoport reports:

The target for #Rams to sign QB Nick Foles to a long-term deal is prior to the season. They’ll continue to talk. He’ll make $1.5M this year
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) June 15, 2015

This has sparked some question marks from Rams fans. Foles has not proven that he can be a good quarterback outside of Chip Kelly’s offense, and some still even question whether or not he is a true first string option. There is no doubt that this is a very high risk play for St. Louis if this deal gets done, but it very well could work out for them in the long run.

Quarterbacks are extremely overpaid. Actually, let me rephrase that, MOST quarterbacks are extremely overpaid. Aaron Rodgers makes a modest $18.2 million against the cap this year, which might actually be way less than he is worth, considering Matt Ryan and Eli Manning will make more this year than Rodgers will, but that is how the market is now, quarterbacks are expensive.

Once you have found a quarterback that can handle your offense and be a product for years to come, the base target is set about $20 million a year, $100 million total. Don’t believe me? Here are the last few quarterbacks to get locked up:

Cam Newton: 5 years–103.8 million

Ryan Tannehill: 6 years–96 million

Andy Dalton: 6 years–115 million

Carson Palmer: 3 years–50 million

Alex Smith: 4 years–68 million

That’s just a few examples, but it proves that if you can prove yourself a starter, you are almost guaranteed an average salary of 15 million plus. Alex Smith is a very reliable option, but only throwing for 3,265 yards and 18 touchdowns hardly seems worth that kind of money. Cam Newton does have legs, but only throwing an 18-12 touchdown to interception ratio with just over 3000 yards hardly seems 100 million worth.

That’s just the market today, and St. Louis knows this. So they basically have two options:

The first is the safest. Let Foles play out this season. If he does good, and can handle the offense, St. Louis will sign him to a six-year, $120 million-dollar deal, and will have their franchise quarterback for the long term. If he doesn’t work out, then St Louis can just let him go, and start building (ugh) Sean Mannion.

The second is more risky, but has a higher payoff. If St. Louis goes ahead and signs Foles now, they might be able to get him at a very reasonable discount. Foles is still unproven on the team, and if St. Louis signs him now, they might be able to get away with an average salary hit around $10-12 million, instead of 20.

Honestly, signing him now is the best option. Foles did a great job in Philadelphia despite that monstrosity of an offense they run. (nothing personal, I just hate it) I truly believe that Foles can succeed in a run-first power offense, especially if he can handle what Chip Kelly made him do. The truth of the matter is, Foles statistically has the numbers in favor of him. If Nick can throw for around 3,000 yards and 15-20 touchdowns, then he will be in the same company as Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick, and Cam Newton, who all got lucrative extensions. Do you really think Foles can’t do that? He was on pace for over 4000 yards in each of the last two seasons with well over 25 touchdowns, if not slowed by the injury, and Chip Kelly changing quarterbacks every two seconds.

The other thing is, Jeff Fisher and company are obviously impressed from what Foles has shown at OTA’s. Foles immediately came in day one and embraced St. Louis, and wasted no time hanging out with his new receivers and getting chemistry built between them. Rams players have been raving over Foles, for his arm, his accuracy, but more importantly, his leadership.

I understand that no one is going to bad mouth their new quarterback, but body language doesn’t lie, and it clearly tells that the St. Louis Rams are very impressed with how Foles has played. With the Rams having a clear run-first offense, it seems very clear that locking him up does indeed make sense, if Alex Smith is worth 15 million a year given his stats, then Foles at 10-12 million a year would be a God send. I don’t know how much Nick Foles will succeed, but I know he can put up 3000 yards and 18 touchdowns in any offense.

Next: Takeaways From St Louis Rams OTA's

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