Predicting the March Madness 1st Round Matchups in St Louis
Wisconsin vs. Pittsburgh
While St. Louis will see quantity over quality in the Xavier-Weber State match up, they’ll see the polar opposite in the Wisconsin-Pittsburgh match up. Well, not really. What they’ll see is quantity with some quality, especially on Pitt’s end. Wisconsin will bring its high-level defense to the table to make up for its paltry offense.
Pitt absolutely wallops Wisconsin on both metrics within the three-point line; the Badgers made less than half their 1,158 two-point attempts, whereas Pitt made just over half of their 1,293 attempts. The Panthers made less threes, but their 104th ranked offense didn’t rely on three that much. Neither, for that matter, did Wisconsin’s.
If Wisconsin is to win, they’ll have to rely primarily on their top 25-ranked defense. While the Badgers only scored 68.9 PPG (small potatoes compared to Pitt’s 76.0), they only allowed 64.6. It’ll be that defense, along with great days by the triple threat of Nigel Hayes, Bronson Koening, and Ethan Happ that propels the Badgers past the Panthers.
Wisconsin quickly runs into the problem that Pitt has a threesome that matches or surpasses Wisconsin’s and a supporting cast that is far deeper. Both Michael Young and Jamel Artis have a higher PPG than Hayes and Koening, and Pitt’s bench outscores Wisconsin by more than double. Pitt’s number three, James Robinson, scores less than Ethan Happ, but he has more assists. Happ’s propensity for rebounds also means he’s a double-double threat day in, day out. The advantage for Pitt is that they have to have a merely average day, where Wisconsin has to excel.
Prediction: Pitt Panthers
We’ll see you before the round of 32.