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Predicting the March Madness 1st Round Matchups in St Louis

By Chris Olszewski

Mar 13, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Denzel Valentine (45) cuts net after winning the Big Ten Championship against the Purdue Boilermakers 66-62 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 13, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Denzel Valentine (45) cuts net after winning the Big Ten Championship against the Purdue Boilermakers 66-62 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports /
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Xavier vs. Weber State

Mar 11, 2016; New York, NY, USA; Xavier Musketeers forward Jalen Reynolds (1) reacts after receiving a technical foul during the second half of Big East conference tournament game against Seton Hall Pirates at Madison Square Garden. Seton Hall Pirates defeated Xavier Musketeers 87-83.Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 11, 2016; New York, NY, USA; Xavier Musketeers forward Jalen Reynolds (1) reacts after receiving a technical foul during the second half of Big East conference tournament game against Seton Hall Pirates at Madison Square Garden. Seton Hall Pirates defeated Xavier Musketeers 87-83.Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports /

It could be argued that Xavier is lucky that they’re a two seed. A loss to Seton Hall in the Big East championship game seriously hampered their image. But there’s a reason this team went 27-5 with the 35th strongest schedule in the nation. They’re a legitimately good team that earned its seed in the tournament with a high powered offense. That offense will be key to defeating Weber State. The fact that Damian Lillard no longer attends Weber State also helps.

Back to the aforementioned offense. Xavier had one of the highest scoring offenses in the nation, averaging 81.3 PPG. While most of the teams tapped to win in this article have had better percentages than their opponents, the Musketeers are the opposite: a team built on quantity rather than quality. Weber State makes higher percentage shots than Xavier; The Wildcats have a total field goal percentage of 48.5 percent, compared to Xavier’s 45.2 percent.

However, Xavier just takes a higher quantity of shots. Their 1,938 field goal attempts is a little over 100 more than Weber State’s (1,828). Weber State only made 10 more shots than Xavier, but Xavier absolutely trounces Weber State in terms of shots taken inside the three-point line. They also beat the Wildcats in terms of two-point shots made.

That’s a good thing for the Musketeers, because they don’t have the greatest defense. Weber State, despite having a worse strength of schedule, had a better defense. And a strength of schedule difference isn’t much of an excuse for having a defense that is 95 ranks worse than Weber State. exploiting that defense is going to be important for Weber State to beat Xavier. If they don’t, Xavier’s offense could be too much for the Wildcats.

Prediction: Xavier Musketeers

Next: Wisconsin vs. Pittsburgh

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