NL Central 2016: Where Will the Cardinals Land?

Second Place: St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have lost a lot of players this offseason. This includes players like Jason Heyward and John Lackey, but most of the players that left the team were on the back end of the roster anyway. Losing Peter Bourjos and Steve Cishek isn’t going to drastically change the fortunes of this team. In fact, only two players on the Opening Day 2015 starting lineup, Jason Heyward and Jon Jay will be elsewhere in 2016. In the case of Jay, it could be argued that the Cardinals benefited from his departure. The Cardinals traded Jay, a middling center fielder, for sorely needed infield depth in the form of Jedd Gyorko.

Position Players

The 2016 St. Louis Cardinals won’t look as different from 2015 as people might think. The Cardinals are missing a big piece in Jason Heyward, but they might have a pressing need to replace him.

But…but….

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Yeah, Heyward basically blew every other Cardinal out of the water. But he will be missed that much? I don’t think so. The Cardinals were racked by injuries last year, and will have both Matt Adams and Brandon Moss back to full health. Not to mention that Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk will coming into their own and providing some pop. Jedd Gyorko isn’t a slouch either, and he will benefit greatly from being out of the pitcher’s dream that is PETCO Park. Will any of them replace Heyward? No. But some of the ink spilled in the aftermath of Heyward’s departure was unwarranted.

Pitching

Like the offensive side of the game, the pitching staff lost a big piece in John Lackey. After a career year in 2015, Lackey bolted for the Chicago Cubs and, frankly, more money. That left the Cards in desperate need of an innings eater. They were able to find one in Mike Leake. Leake is not going to be on the level that Lackey was; Lackey had an ERA a full run better than Leake’s, and and his FIP was even better. Lackey had a 3.57 FIP, and he had three more SO/9. But Lackey is also likely to regress, and Leake will serve exactly the role he was signed for: a mid-rotation innings eater.

The starting rotation will also see the return of Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia, who will function as the one and two in the rotation. The pair are both projected to have sub-3.50 ERAs and a positive win percentage. One of the areas of concern, though, is injuries. Wainwright in particular is only projected to throw 77 innings, and with the loss of Lance Lynn for the year, they lack a solid spot starter that they can rely on.

The Cardinals do, however, own a solid bullpen. After re-signing Jonathan Broxton, have kept their bullpen largely intact (with the major exception of Steve Cishek), and have multiple players that can pitch long relief. Expect to see guys like Jordan Walden and Tyler Lyons throughout the season, especially if Wainwright’s projections are remotely accurate. And that’s not even getting to the man known as “The Final Boss”.

Will they make the playoffs?: Yes. The Cards will slip into the second Wild Card spot.

Next: First Place: Chicago Cubs