Arch Authority
Fansided

NL Central 2016: Where Will the Cardinals Land?

By Chris Olszewski

Apr 29, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Jordan Walden (53) pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies in the eight inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 29, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Jordan Walden (53) pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies in the eight inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /
twitterfacebookreddit
Prev
4 of 6
Next

Third Place: Pittsburgh Pirates

Oct 2, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates third base coach Rick Sofield (41) greets center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) after McCutchen hit a solo home run against the Cincinnati Reds during the fourth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 2, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates third base coach Rick Sofield (41) greets center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) after McCutchen hit a solo home run against the Cincinnati Reds during the fourth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

Even if you don’t like them, you have to feel at least a little bad for the Pirates. The Pirates have received the short end of the Wild Card stick two years running, and the one year they won the Wild Card game, the Cardinals bounced them out of the playoffs. Safe to say, the Pirates have not had the best luck. That won’t change in 2016.

Position Players

The Pirates come into 2016 with largely the same starting lineup they had in 2015, but there are some changes. The right side of the infield is home to the biggest changes. Both starting second baseman Neil Walker and starting first baseman Pedro Alvarez have bolted; Alvarez is currently a free agent and Walker was traded to the New York Mets for Jon Niese. To be frank, losing Walker and Alvarez is completely unlike losing a player like Andrew McCutchen. Walker had a .269/.328/.756 slash line, hitting 16 home runs and driving in 71 runs. Alvarez was even worse, owning a .283/.318/.469 slash line.

Their replacements, John Jaso for Alvarez and Josh Harrison for Walker, are essentially direct upgrades. As spot starter at first base for the Tampa Bay Rays, Jaso owned a quite high OBP of .380, knocking in 22 RBI and hitting five home runs. His 2016 projections aren’t as bullish, putting him at a .346 OBP and a .263 batting average. Those might not seem like great numbers, but they are far better than what Alvarez was able to put up. Harrison has similar, if slightly better numbers; Harrison had a better BA at .287, but a worse OPS (.327) as well. He’s projected to have about the same numbers, but also double the WAR (because that makes sense).

More from St. Louis Cardinals

Pitching

Starting pitching was Pittsburgh’s strong suit last year (outside of a certain center fielder). However, they’ve lost a fair chunk of their starting rotation. J.A. Happ returned to Toronto in November, A.J. Burnett retired after the season, and Charlie Morton was dealt to the Phillies for prospects. Burnett is the biggest loss. Happ only pitched in eleven games, and his 162-game averages are worse than Burnett’s 2015 numbers. Happ had a worse ERA, FIP, H/9, SO/9. Charlie Morton was unimpressive, and at 32 it was time for the Pirates to get rid of him. Still, replacing the entire back half of a rotation is a tall order (although keeping Cole, Liriano, and Locke will help the Pirates immensely).

Enter Ryan Vogelsong and Jon Niese. Vogelsong hasn’t quite been the innings-eater he’s been in the past; he only pitched 135 innings in 2015, and his ERA has ballooned over the past three seasons. He hasn’t seen a sub-4.00 ERA since 2012, and he gave up 3.8 BB/9, his highest number since 2005. Luckily for the Pirates, pitching Ray Severage has made a name for himself churning out successful reclamation projects, and Vogelsong could turn out to be an at-least good anchor of the rotation’s back half. With a one-year deal, there are worse things the Pirates could gamble on. Niese is more of a sure thing, but he has the lowest ceiling of anyone in the rotation.

Will they make the playoffs?: No. A team in another division will swipe that second Wild Card spot. That team will likely come out of the NL West.

Next: Second Place: St Louis Cardinals

Home/St. Louis Cardinals