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NL Central 2016: Where Will the Cardinals Land?

By Chris Olszewski

Apr 29, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Jordan Walden (53) pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies in the eight inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 29, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Jordan Walden (53) pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies in the eight inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /
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Fourth Place: Cincinnati Reds

Oct 3, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Brandon Finnegan (31) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the third inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 3, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Brandon Finnegan (31) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the third inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

This off season has been one of action for the Reds. After shipping third baseman and Home Run Derby champion Todd Frazier to the Chicago White Sox and the botched trade of Brandon Phillips to the Washington Nationals, the Reds then turned around and dumped closer Aroldis Chapman on the New York Yankees. For all of this, Cincinnati Reds received a crop of guys that give some young depth to an otherwise aging roster.

Position Players

The Reds are in a better position offensively than the Brewers. Only two of their starting position players have WARs of less than 1.0, and if those two players (left fielder Adam Duvall and right fielder Jay Bruce) don’t pan out in 2016, the Reds have been gifted quite a bit in terms in depth thanks to their trades. Duvall should be given a larger leash than Bruce; Bruce is not the player he once was, and Duvall is young. He’s projecting to be better than he was in 2015, and he could be a piece of the Reds outfield for a longer term than Bruce will be. Somebody like Scott Schebler is more likely to replace Bruce.

Schebler, one of the pieces in the Todd Frazier trade, would likely be an immediate downgrade from Bruce. The 27-year old is projected to be at about replacement level, but he could be a one or two win player this year, and continue to improve in the future. Schebler also has power to spare: his first career home run was not a glorified blooper. In the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, Schebler could have a field day. Or seven.

The big piece in the Frazier trade, Jose Peraza, has less upside than he used to, but could still be a factor in the Reds’ future. He’s projected to have .303 BABIP and a .275/.303/.368 slash line. Those aren’t exactly numbers worthy of a package centerpiece, but with his young age, he has a large amount of room for improvement.

Pitching

There was a point this off season at which Aroldis Chapman was considered to be untradeable. Thankfully for the Reds, he was not. The Reds essentially needed to get rid of him. They’re rebuilding, and Chapman was their biggest trade chip. On the flip side, their bullpen took a steep dive due to his departure.

[table id=2015CINBullpen /]
Not one of the regular bullpen options come close to Chapman. The new closer on the depth chart, Robert Stephenson, was in the minors in 2015. Stephenson was not that impressive in AAA; he had a 4.04 ERA for the Louisville Bats. He struck out 51 and gave up 25 runs. Not exactly an immediately worthy successor to Chapman. “An immediately worthy successor” is what the Reds might need, because the rest of the pitching staff offers little else.

The Reds did little to replenish their starting rotation after the departures of Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake. Homer Bailey is coming off Tommy John; he’s been throwing since September. His replacement as ace, Anthony DeSclafani, had numbers that looked like anything but a day-to-day ace’s. The 25-year old had a 4.05 ERA in 2015, giving up 17 home runs and 55 walks. After that, it only gets worse on the current rotation; no other pitcher currently on the Reds’ roster had a winning record in 2015, and the two pitchers being upgraded from the bullpen don’t look promising.

Will they make the playoffs?: No.

Next: Third Place: Pittsburgh Pirates

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