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NL Central 2016: Where Will the Cardinals Land?

By Chris Olszewski

Apr 29, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Jordan Walden (53) pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies in the eight inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 29, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Jordan Walden (53) pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies in the eight inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /
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Fifth Place: Milwaukee Brewers

Oct 3, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Tyler Wagner (59) pitches in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 3, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Tyler Wagner (59) pitches in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports /

Don’t cry them for them, Milwaukee. The Brewers will be back in the division title discussion in a few years. They do have the pieces to compete in a few years stacked somewhere in the minors. This year, the Brewers will be cellar dwelling. The Brewers do not have the players necessary to compete in the division in 2016.

Position Players

Going off the official depth chart, only four of the starting position players have a projected WAR of at least 1.0, and only one of those, Jonathan Lucroy, is in the infield. The other starters’ combined WAR is only 0.3 WAR over Billy Hamilton’s and only 60 percent of Joey Votto’s. No starter has a projected BA higher than .300 and only Ryan Braun has a projected OBP of higher than .350. First baseman Chris Carter is, as he was on the 2015 Houston Astros, the weakest link; his .222/.317/.456 slash line is the second-worst of the eight, and Carter is projected to have a 32.2 percent strikeout rate.

Jonathan Villar, Carter’s fellow former Astro, is another weak spot at third base. His projected OBP is .301, and is only projected to hit six home runs and drive in 26 RBI. He’s also the #1 third baseman on the depth chart, despite never playing more than 90 games in a season. Villar’s ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) is projected to be only .125, and he has never cracked .160 in a season.

Pitching

The Brewer’s starting rotation doesn’t offer much in the way of relief. None of their starters is projected to have a winning record or a sub-4.00 ERA. Their day one starter, Wily Peralta, is projected to have second-highest ERA on the rotation. The one bright spot on the rotation is perhaps Jimmy Nelson; the 26-year old is protected to have the lowest ERA on the rotation, as well as the highest K/9 at 7.87. That number would have put him above pitchers such as Johnny Cueto and Sonny Gray in 2015. Brewers fans might want to temper their excitement though, as Nelson has a higher projected HR/9 and BB/9 than either of those pitchers.

If there is a positive to Milwaukee’s roster, it’s the back end of its bullpen. Closer Will Smith is projected to have the lowest ERA and highest K/9 of any pitcher on the roster, and will a slightly lower BABIP than any of Milwaukee’s starters. Most of the rest of the Brewer’s bullpen is projected to have similar, if slightly less impressive numbers. That said, if the starters leave them with a bad inheritance, no amount of skill will help them.

Will they make the playoffs?: Nope. Milwaukee should expect at least a protected draft pick, if not first overall.

Next: Fourth Place: Cincinnati Reds

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