The 100 Days: Where Do St. Louis Cardinals Go From Here?

With less than 100 days remaining until first pitch at PNC Park on April 3, 2016, one question hangs like a cloud over St. Louis Cardinals baseball: where do we go from here?

This offseason has not been the best-case scenario for the St. Louis Cardinals. They have lost such pieces as Jason Heyward, John Lackey, Peter Bourjos, and Jon Jay; those first two were among GM John Mozeliak’s biggest priorities, and both ended up signing with the Chicago Cubs. To add insult to injury, Heyward later commented that he took less money to play for the Cubs because of their youth. This did not sit well with most of the Cardinals faithful, and they have reason to be frustrated at his comments: according to ESPN, both teams have the same average age, 27.3 years old.

But Heyward has a point. The championship window for the Northsiders is larger than that of the current Cardinals. Heyward was not wrong when he said that parts of the Cardinals core such as Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday, and Adam Wainwright are trending down. The Cubs have their core, anchored by All-Stars Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, under control until 2021. Those guys are all young and have quite a bit of trade value. Even if one of those players in the core gets dealt, they’ll bring in a player of at least roughly equal value. Jorge Soler, for, instance, would have brought in Ender Inciarte, one of the players dealt from Arizona to Atlanta in the Shelby Miller trade.

Inciarte, for reference, hit .303/.338/.408 in 2015.

Who do the Cardinals have that could bring in somebody like that in a trade? Inciarte is 25 and has the stats to back himself up. Bringing Inciarte in would have likely required fleecing the Cardinals of some major prospects, and the Cubs were talking with the Braves ready to give up an already expendable piece of their outfield that is of marginally lesser value. The Cardinals really have nothing to compete with that (and the idea of ending a 108-year long title drought) on the trade market.

Sep 30, 2015; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Mike Leake (13) throws a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the second inning at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports /

That perceived lack of hunger hurts them on the free agent market as well, as we’ve seen with not only Heyward and Lackey, but also David Price and Ben Zobrist. Boston and Chicago are more attractive locations than St. Louis at this point, which is forcing the Cardinals front office to look for less splashy names to fill the Cardinals’ many, many needs.

Signing Mike Leake was a step in this direction. Leake is by no means a Price, or Zack Greinke, but he is what the Cardinals needed: a reliable innings-eater in the middle of the rotation to replace Lackey. $80 million over five years and a full no-trade clause might be a slight overpay for Leake, but compared to what Grienke or Price got, Leake is what the Cardinals need for a bargain. Leake’s numbers are remarkably similar to Lackey’s, and Leake is eight years his junior. Because of this, a three or four-year deal might have been a better fit, but he was possibly the best option on the market for both what the Cardinals needed and wanted.

Leake’s lack of a qualifying offer was just icing on the cake; the Cardinals have piled up the compensatory picks after Heyward and Lackey’s departures, and it would be remiss to lose them.

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At first glance, trading Jon Jay for Jedd Gyorko looks like the exact opposite. The Cardinals are not wanting for infield options, and the first few depth options that come to mind in left field are starting at other positions. If Jon Jay was retained, he could’ve been that depth option in left…except that swapping Jay for Gyorko was in most ways a straight upgrade. In 2015, Gyorko had a batting average 30 points higher than Jay’s, and he also had more hits period. Gyorko will be a solid backup to three-quarters of the infield; he is also younger than Jay, and has more potential.

Trading Jay frees up a spot so that the Cardinals can replace what they lost in Heyward: a third strong bat in the outfield. A Randal Grichuk/Stephen Piscotty pairing in the outfield is a great start. Both are young, and Piscotty’s 162-game projections in particular look rather similar to Heyward’s 2015 season at the plate. According to Baseball Reference, his 2016 projections include a .346 OPS, which is just what the Cardinals need.

That brings us to Matt Holliday. Holliday is by no means done, but he is 35, and 2016 could be his last year. Despite that, he figures to do well in 2016; he is currently projected to have 12 home runs with a .272 batting average and a .365 on base percentage, according to Baseball Reference. That is not insignificant, and Holliday may prove hard to replace.The Cardinals can tackle this problem in two ways; first, they can go for a young, known quantity and sign him to a long-term deal. The second option is going for a stopgap option now or in the 2016 offseason while an outfielder develops in the minors.

The most obvious solutions to the first option are Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes. Both are looking to make somewhere in the range of $140-150 million over the course of their contracts; it’s a big number that some might be leery of, but the long-term nature of the deals would lessen the year-by-year impact financially. The Cardinals are in line to make such a deal, as their payroll currently sits at $122 million; that number is equal to what it was on Opening Day in 2015. As the offseason rolls along, the prices of the two could drop and they could look into being in a place like St. Louis if the Cardinals give them enough money.

Sep 29, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres left fielder Justin Upton (10) hits a ground rule double during the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports /

Upton is the younger of the two at 28. The former #1 pick has quietly become one of the game’s premier outfielders, and put together three consecutive great offensive seasons in notorious pitcher’s parks Turner Field and Petco Park. In 2015 alone, Upton hit .260 with a .343 OBP, with 3.6 WAR to his name. That WAR is slightly higher than Grichuk’s in 2015, and the 10.4 WAR he has compiled since 2013 puts him in line with Jacoby Ellsbury, who received a $153 million, seven-year deal in 2014. A similar deal isn’t out of the question for Upton.

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The same goes for Cespedes. While the Cuban is two years older than Upton, he also has been one of the best outfielders in the game over the last three years; according to Fangraphs, he has the 14th highest WAR among outfielders since 2013. Cespedes also provides another big bat in the outfield; his .337 OBP is less than that of Holliday, but he also has greater defensive value.

The second option lends itself to some smaller names, such as Gerardo Parra or Dexter Fowler. Both are in Upton’s age range, but figure to be much cheaper than Upton. For a stop gap, Fowler is the better option of the two. Fowler is a year older than Upton, but is likely more keen to a shorter deal while a player such as Magneuis Sierra or Ryan Plummer develops in the minors. His Steamer projections put him at a .250 BA, a .347 OBP, and a 1.7 WAR. While those aren’t anywhere near Holliday’s numbers, he would have a WAR similar to Jhonny Peralta.

Parra, 28, is again more keen to a shorter deal; the flip side of this is that his numbers are worse. His Steamer projections foretell a .267/.315/.394 slash line with a 1.0 WAR, but he has a higher defensive rating. Parra is on an obvious downward slide, though, and the Cardinals might not want to sign someone who has a high chance of being a liability down the line.

Next: Arch Awards: Stephen Piscotty was St. Louis's Rising Star in 2015

The Cardinals have not done much this offseason, and there is much to be done if the Cardinals are to compete in the NL Central in 2016. The division looks like it could send three of its teams to the playoffs again. However, if the Cardinals are to repeat as division champions, there are still things that need fixing. And they are running out of time.

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The 100 Days: Where Do the St. Louis Cardinals Go From Here?

By Chris Olszewski | Jan 2, 2016

With less than 100 days remaining until first pitch at PNC Park on April 3, 2016, one question hangs like a cloud over St. Louis Cardinals baseball: where do we go from here?

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