How SLU Can Beat VCU

A 1-4 record in the A-10 might not scream upset alert to VCU, but could it be a trap game for the Rams? With George Washington (who SLU played very close) hot in their heels in the A-10 standings, and next up on their schedule, SLU would seem to be the least of their worries. Coach Shaka Smart certainly isn’t allowing his squad to think of anything by the upcoming game versus the Bills. “They have a lot of new guys, but you can see with each game they’re getting better and better, gaining confidence,” said Smart earlier in the week. But is there a legitimate shot SLU could pull off a minor miracle on Friday? In my completely biased upon, it’s not only possible—it’s likely.

Put an asterisk on the end of that last sentence, because they’ll need all those things we’ve been waiting to “click” this year, to click.

Defense/Rebounding

“[He’s]…the best freshman in the league.”-Shaka Smart, talking about Milik Yarbrough

152^nd in the country in points allowed (64.9/game) could be worse, but the real issue comes from the inability of their big men to rebound, allowing 2^nd chance points for the opposition. In the Bills’ 9 losses, they’ve lost the 2^nd chance point battle 8 times. Why the second chance points? Well, it doesn’t help that, starting off, the Bills are tied for 325^th in the country for defensive rebounds per game, with 21.1. On top of that, the frontcourt lacks a gritty identity that Bills’ frontcourts of past years had. Criticizing an athlete’s toughness is the biggest insult, and I wouldn’t do it unless necessary. But they’re soft inside. John Manning, Austin Gillmann, and Brett Jolly are huge, but don’t have the fight to rebound defensively. Reggie Agbeko shows occasional signs, but isn’t given significant minutes to make an impact. Against a smaller VCU team (only one guy over 6’8” plays significant minutes), the rebounding needs to shift from Yacoubou and Yarbrough (SLU’s leading rebounders), to the guys gifted with greater height.

Defensively, there’s one key: contain Treveon Graham, shut down everyone else. Watching tapes of Graham should excite Bills fans. At 6’6”, 220 pounds with a 6’9” wingspan, Graham looks like Milik Yarbrough hopefully will within a year or two. Both have a knack for scoring, and undeniable motor. Thus, defensively, Yarbrough’s the obvious choice to try and contain Graham. With a very good three, drive, or mid-range game, the freshmen will have his hands full. Maybe his biggest test of the season. As for the rest of VCU’s lineup, SLU can’t allow a guy like Melvin Johnson to get going, and they certainly can’t allow anyone to shoot a high percentage from three. When Old Dominion beat VCU earlier in the season, VCU only shot 32% from beyond the arc. Down low, VCU has about as much as SLU, and they don’t often look there for scoring (*John Manning rejoices knowing he doesn’t have to play hard defense*). Bills haven’t been great at defense this season, but there’s a lot more matchups here in their favor than people are willing to give them credit for.

Offense

Milik Yarbrough scores like nobody else. Shaka Smart even went out of his way to say that he’s “the best freshman in this league”. Outside of that, Ash Yacoubou showed signs of great scoring earlier in the year, but has since slowed down. Still, being the secondary scorer on the Bills was solidified for him with Austin McBroom going M.I.A. for suspicious reasons (maybe he should devote more time to basketball, less time to Vine). Mike Crawford drains (check graphic to the left from last season for proof), and deserves more tick and more shots. Davell Roby’s stronger and more athletic than we’ve seen this year, so he, along with Marcus Bartley, have that potential to be the tertiary scorer for SLU. These 4-5 need to each have double digits each to keep it close.

I touched on second-chance points earlier, but more the defensive side. Offensively, the story’s not much prettier. SLU currently ranks 306^th in offensive boards nationally. I’ve never heard of a coach being happy about ranking in the 300s for any stat. Almost mirroring the defensive problem, big guys on SLU don’t offensive rebound. 4 of the top 5 offensive rebounding leaders are guards, including Austin McBroom. Plainly put, that’s pitiful.

Ok, maybe it’s not “likely” that SLU will beat VCU. There’s a better chance than any one will give them credit for, though. A larger-than-normal burden will be on Milik Yarbrough’s shoulders. If he can’t stick Tre Graham and score 20 points, SLU’s in for trouble. That first 5 minutes will be the test. SLU’s had notoriously bad starts this season, another thing they can’t do. In 3 years, when this team’s developed (after Jayson Tatum commits), we could be looking back at this game as the one that started it all.

Game time: 6 p.m. CST

TV: ESPN2

Sidenote: VCU fans weren’t happy with me when I originally posted the idea. Can’t wait to see their responses after this article’s published.