Are the St. Louis Blues Really Better Off Without Jay Bouwmeester?

As the St. Louis Blues faced the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday night, we got yet another glimpse at an extremely rare occurrence that has become more common during the 2014-15 season: the absence of defenseman Jay Bouwmeester. The 31-year-old Bouwmeester, who sat out with an illness, missed his ninth game of the season after ending a streak of 737 consecutive games played earlier this season due to a groin injury.
The Blues, who had dealt with some major issues in two straight losses preceding Saturday’s game, bounced back in the strongest of ways on Saturday, defeating Toronto by a score of 6-1, which moved them within two points of division-leading Nashville. For the first time in a few games, the team was very fluid defensively, giving up just 24 shots on goal, and as a result Brian Elliott was put under much less pressure than he had been against Philadelphia on Thursday.

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Obviously the uptick in performance could have simply been due to the fact that the Blues were playing one of the NHL’s less-esteemed teams this season, as the Leafs are 26-35-5 and would be in last place in the Atlantic Division if not for the historically-bad Buffalo Sabres.

With that said, some increasing statistical evidence is building up to suggest that the Blues’ performance moves up a level when Bouwmeester is out of the lineup.

With Saturday’s win over Toronto, the Blues now have a .722 point percentage without Bouwmeester (6-2-1), compared with a .661 mark (35-17-4) with him in the lineup. Granted, it’s a smaller sample size, but half of those wins without Bouwmeester have been against teams that are currently projected playoff participants. It’s not as if the defensive performance has dropped off when Bouwmeester has missed games either; the club is allowing 28.7 opponent shots on goal per game when Bouwmeester is out, just over a shot more than the 27.6 average they’ve put up with him in the lineup.

Bouwmeester is an extremely disciplined defenseman who is nearly always going to be where he’s supposed to at the proper time. For the most part, he’s extremely durable, and he’s a great minutes-eater who can consistently give his team at least 20 minutes a night.
On the flip side of that, however, Bouwmeester doesn’t really bring a defining quality to his game other than night-to-night consistency. In the past, he’s been a significant offensive contributor; he had three seasons of double-digit goals with the Florida Panthers and has delivered at least 20 assists per season in every full season since 2005-06. Just last year, he contributed 33 assists. This year, though, his offensive production is way down, and he’s contributed just two goals and eight assists to this point.
The Blues are going to face a tough decision if and when they return to full strength on the blueline. Zbynek Michalek, a shot-blocking specialist acquired at the trade deadline from the Coyotes, will be among the top six when he recovers from a concussion. Kevin Shattenkirk is quite arguably the team’s best defenseman and surely will be back in the lineup as soon as his abdominal injury is healed, probably playing premium minutes if his body permits.

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Even though he’s had his struggles in the defensive end this year, there’s no chance that

Alex Pietrangelo

is going anywhere, as he’s a major offensive contributor and is the team’s best minutes-eater.

Carl Gunnarsson

hasn’t done a whole lot to stand out, but he’s a very good puck-mover who has very rarely hurt the Blues in their own zone.

Barret Jackman

is quite possibly the heart and soul of the defensive corps and is having one of the best seasons of his 13-year Blues career. And 21-year-old rookie

Petteri Lindbohm

has looked like the team’s top defenseman at points recently, and he brings a rugged, physical element to the group that isn’t really exhibited by any of the other Blues defensemen.

Along with Bouwmeester’s replacement on Saturday night,

Chris Butler

, newly-acquired Robert Bortuzzo would seem to be an easy guy to take out, as he hasn’t made major contributions to the Blues’ efforts, and he’s been a spot player through his brief NHL career, meaning that he can more easily deal with being a healthy scratch. Beyond those two, however, the decisions will be tough. Lindbohm will likely fall victim to his youth, though removing him from the group takes away that jolt of energy and physicality and could easily have a negative effect. If the decision were strictly based on performance, Bouwmeester might be removed ahead of Lindbohm.

Realistically, there’s not much that coach Ken Hitchcock can do. Whereas it’s more acceptable in sports like football and baseball to sit a player with a star reputation down the stretch if they haven’t been producing, it’s almost too risky to do so in a game like hockey, where team cohesiveness plays such a large role in the success of a gameplan. It’d be an extra daunting move with a player like Bouwmeester, who has literally never been a healthy scratch during the course of his NHL career.

Then again, the numbers do suggest that the Blues perform a little bit better when Bouwmeester’s out, and GM Doug Armstrong said following the acquisition of Michalek and Bortuzzo this week that a few defensemen needed to prepare to have hurt feelings down the stretch, since there’s nine qualified players available for only six spots. It’s highly unlikely that Hitchcock would be bold enough to bench an established player like Bouwmeester, but it’s an interesting subject to look a bit deeper into as the season winds down.

Next: Which Depth Players Can the Blues Count on Down the Stretch?

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